The End of
the Dentente.
q The arms race wasn’t over. It had
only been limited.
q Europe – had finally been settled
with the Ostpolitik.
q New Leaders:
o May 74 Brandt resign after spy
scandal.
o Nixon aug 74.
o Brezhnev illness.
o Zhou Enlai and Mao died in 76.
o Carter is elected in 1976.
q Carter presidency:
o Morale.
o Human Rights.
o Cynism from Nixon gone.
o Pressure on Human Rights.
§
Personal
letter to Sakharov, upset USSR.
§
Nicaragua
failure. New Sandinista left dictatorship.
§
Iran.
Supported Shah while critic on HR. Khomeini even worse.
q Brezhnev:
o Strong military as opposed to US
after Vietnam.
o Strong in Africa.
o Weak in health. 69 years average in
Politburo.
q USSR in Africa increased the
problems:
o Portugal withdrew in 1975.
§
Angola
20 000 – 36 000 Cuban troops.
§
Mozambique
economic support to guerrilla.
§
Somalia
armed and trained the army, but when Somalia attack Ethiopia, change sides.
§
Ethipoia.
Revolution in 1974, emperor Haille Sallase is overthrown.
·
18000
cuban troops.
·
Mengistu
communist dictator. Sovietize the economy.
·
Soviet
Ethiopian friendship agreement.
§
South
Yemen – people’s republic.
o Why?
§
To
stop the Chinese.
§
Fleet
needed friendly harbours.
§
Market
for products.
·
Angola
and Ethiopia members of COMECON.
q SALT II
o Limiting landbased missile
launchers.
o 79 June. Signed in Vienna.
o Carter and the appeasement umbrella.
q Problems with SALT II:
o Six months later USSR invade
Afghanistan.
o Europe felt left out.
§
SS20’s
from USSR deployed in East Europe. Range 5000 kilometers.
§
NAto /
west Europe worried if the US actually are going to defend them if there is no
threat to US.
§
They
ask for deployment of US Pershings.
o This leads to a new arms race in
Europe.
q Afghanistan 24 dec 1979.
o 50000 troops
o WHY?
§
Sept
communist leader murdered.
§
Civil
War.
§
At the
same time Iran.
§
Prevent
Islamic republic in Afghanistan, afraid it might spread to south USSR.
§
No
country should be allowed to leave the camp ones they joined, Brezhnev
doctrine.
q Carter reactions:
o Very strong “jeopardizing the
relations between USSR and US.” “Greatest threat to world peace since the WW2”.
o Why this reaction:
§
What
if USSR moved to Iran?
§
USSR
plans in meddle east? Horn of Africa, South Yemen? Parts of a grand new plan?
q UN condemns USSR:
o General Assembly votes against USSR:
§
Lost
prestige a lot among third world countries and especially amoung Arabic
countries.
§
USSR
no longer pet of Third World non-alignment.
q US Embargo trade and boycott
Olympics.
q Definitive end to the Dentente.
Renewed
Cold War.
q Reagan elected 1980. “The Enigma”
q Background:
o B movie actor
o Governor of California in 67 to 74
o “Small-town American”
o Ignorance and lack of knowledge.
“Two books in his library, but he has already crayoned one of them”.
q Policies:
o Dentente had been a one-way road,
USSR had been using the US.
o Military funding must increase.
o Reaganomics.
o Made foreign policies away from
secret diplomacy to public relations.
§
Upset
the Russians.
o Frank and blunt in his speeches
referring to the USSR:
§
“USSR
are prepared to commit any crime, to lie and to cheat in order to promote world
revolution.” In his first press conference ever.
§
After
the press conference he informed the Soviet Ambassador Dobrynin “I meant no
offense, only expressing my deep conviction.”
§
March
8 1983 “the aggressive impulses of an evil empire.”
o It took him 2 years before he had a personal meeting with the soviet
ambassador.
q Reagan showed that the US was
prepared to take any step necessary to move against the USSR. By that showing
the true end to the Vietnam War.
q ON THE OTHER HAND:
o He dared to go into negotiations
that none before him had done.
o US is earnest about making peace
with USSR and express no intended harm against USSR per se. If they behave US
will behave. If they mess around, US will mess around.
o Gorbachev realized were he had
Reagan. This is of vital importance.
q USSR 1980 – 1985:
o Still rulers of a mighty empire.
§
Cuba,
Africa, Mongolia, eastern Bloc still under control.
o But cracks in the mirror:
§
Poland
Solidarity movement.
§
Weak
regimes in Africa, still civil war, not being able to maintain control.
§
Egypt
and Iraq had slipped out of their control. Also India to a lesser extent.
§
China
– still a pain in the butt.
§
After
Czechoslovakia – Euro Communism no longer under control from Moscow.
o Three leaders under Reagan’s first
term:
§
Brezhnev:
at the end so ill that he only could read what someone else had written. Died
in 1982.
§
Andropov
1982 – 1984. Also weak health.
§
Chernenko
aged 73 and “a man without qualities”.
o The same secretary of state since
1957 Gromyko.
o Theses leaders kept up the charade
of ideological speeches, same old same old, but with no heart in it.
o They had the same idea of Soviet
role in the world as Stalin had had 40 years ago.
o Nuclear arms and big military that’s
all the USSR needs.
q But at the same time USSR had
tremendous economic problems.
o Khrushchev and his idea to overrun
the capitalistic world was long gone.
o Nothing had happened the last 25
years.
o 15 % of GDP into armed forces (US
spent 5 %)
o Not knowing and not caring about
economy. GOSPLAN 5 years, meet the goals.
o Importing cereals and exporting oil
and gas.
o The eastern bloc was becoming a
burden for USSR
§
Prices
of oil were set low, five years at a row. USSR would have gotten much more on
the market.
q The biggest problem at the very
start of the 80’s was Poland:
o Catholic Church.
o John Paul II oct 1978.
o Visits Poland in 1979.
o Strikes in Gdansk.
o Solidarity Movement Walesa,
§
Trade
Union not under communist control
§
Showing
the gap between communism and reality.
o USSR considered military
intervention.
§
Moved
troops to the border
§
Ordered
East Germans to Rugen, close to Stettin.
o General Jaruzelski minister of
defense since 1968 and prime minister since 1981 declared Martial Law 13 dec
1981.
o Walesa is arrested, and other
members of Solidarity.
q Afghanistan proved to be a huge
problem for USSR.
o US supported Mujaheddin secretly
with arms.
§
Had to
use Soviet weapon – got from Israel and Egypt.
§
100’s
of Tennessee Mules.
§
1986
Stinger missiles
o USSR could not win the war.
Gorbachev and the beginning of the end.
q
March
1985 Chernenko died.
q
Gorbachev
aged 54 takes over.
o
The
first leader actually born in Soviet not in Tsarist Russia.
o
Lawyer
Moscow University.
o
Member
of the Politburo since 1980.
o
True
Marxist-leninist.
§
Gorby
was a true believer in the socialist state, especially the welfare.
q
he wanted to reform USSR not dissolve it.
o
After
Chernobyl april 1986 he was convinced that rapid and drastic reforms were
needed.
o
“I
thought we had a system that could be improved. Instead, I learned we had a
system that needed to be replaced.
o
Perestroika; reconstructing. Decentralize and introduce some market
forces.
o
Glasnost;
openness. In expression of opinion, discussing history. Stalin was mentioned
again, people wrote their stories to newspapers, files were opened etc. When
Lenin and his crime appeared it was the lid on.
q
Gorby’s
impact on foreign policy.
o
Gromyko
was kicked up, became president of USSR. Shervardnaze replaced him in 1985.
o
Gorbachev
knew that if he didn’t have peace abroad, he would never be able to reform at
home.
o
He
needed to save money on the military. The biggest threat as he could see it was
the SDI.
o
He
wanted to redraw from Afghanistan and Africa. Redrew from Afghanistan 1988 may
15.
o
Peaceful
coexistence should be peaceful cooperation.
q
Gorbachev
got the advise to wait with reforms until Reagan was out. But Gorbachev saw the
opportunity in Reagan. Thatcher had met with Gorbachev in 84 and saw the new
leader in him.
o
A
strong anti-communist is better at making good deals.
Reagan and
Gorbachev; Four summits.
q The four summits:
o Geneva Nov 19 – 20 1985.
o Reykjavik Oct 11 – 12 1986.
o Washington Dec 7 – 10 1987.
o Moscow May 29 – June 1988.
q Reagan in 1985 State of the Union he
set up US foreign policy: US has the right and duty to help every one fighting
for freedom, from Afghanistan to Nicaragua.
q At Chernenko’s funeral VP Bush gave
Gorbachev an invitation to Washington.
q Reagan and gorby decided to meet
somewhere neutral and Geneva metting was agreed on.
q Geneva Meeting Nov 1985:
o Both leaders were relatively
unprepared.
o “engaged in a free-form discussion”
o Gorbachev wanted Reagan to drop SDI.
Reagan refused.
o Reagan insisted on that the place
were they met should have an open fire and rehearsed before the meeting with
role-play.
o Result:
§
“Triumph
in style” Bell.
§
Comminuque.
No war between US and USSR should be sought because it couldn’t be won.
§
Obvious
but a step in the right direction.
§
No
real results but yet a success.
q New Years Day 1986. Reagan was
televised in USSR and Gorbachev in US with a message of goodwill to the
peoples.
q BUT:
q April 5 1986. A disco in W Berlin is
Bombed. Evidence point toward Gaddaffi in Libya.
o Libya is still protégé of USSR.
o April 15 US bombs over Tripoli and
other Libyan cities.
q Shevardnaze cancelled his planned
trip to US.
q May 27 1986 Reagan said that US
would cease to follow the limits set up in SALT II.
q USSR responded that they will meet
the challenge and keep parity in numbers of missiles.
q BUT:
q Sept 86 Gorbachev suggest summit.
q Reykjavik Oct 1986:
o Gorbachev:
§
USSR
will redraw SS20’s for Pershings.
§
Let’s
cut long range missiles with 50 %, not counting the GB and French missiles.
§
Restrict
ABM and SDI to capitals and other regions.
o Reagan:
§
Reduce
ICBM to zero within 10 years.
§
Keep
the right to have SDI and ABM against intermediate range missiles.
o Gorbachev then replied:
§
Let’s
abolish all nukes within 10 years.
o According to Bell Reagan accepted
this.
o Problem:
§
For
accepting this Gorbachev needed Reagan to put the development of SDI on hold
for 10 years while all nukes were abolished.
§
Reagan
gave a very drastic answer to this. He simply got up and left the room.
o Result:
§
The
summit failed, but it didn’t have the severe consequences it could have had.
§
Gorbachev
managed to sound very hopeful at the pres conference when Reagan had left.
§
Gorbachev
also showed much more trust in Reagan after the summit. Was the SDI a test?
§
The
result of US and USSR abolishing nukes with out the other nuike powers doing so
would have caused a very insecure world.
q Febr 1987 both countries carry out
nuclear tests.
q Immediately after that Gorbachev
suggest a new meeting.
q Foreign Ministers meet in sept 87 –
agree on zero intermediate and 50 % reduction of long range.
q Third Summit, Washington Dec 7 – 10
1987:
o Gorby-mania.
o Treaty of Washington signed:
§
Within
three years reduction of all range 500 – 5000 kilometer missiles.
§
Intermediate
range eliminated. = no more SS20’s
o Gorbachev dropped SDI.
o Reagan “Trust but verify.”
o Internal critics but Reagan could
carry this out.
o The build up in Europe that had
started in 1977 had ended!
o Reagan said that he could see not
just the possibility of the dentente
but actual peace.
q Moscow Summit May 29 to June 2 1988.
o Reagan was asked if still see USSR
as an evil empire, -“No I was talking about another time, another era.”
o US lifted the embargo on USSR.
q Gorby in UN Gerneral Assembly New
York
o USSR will unilateral redraw 500 000
troops from the soviet army.
What
brought on this tremendous change?
q Importance of personalities.
q Legacy of the dentente
q Change of generations. No longer
oldies from WW2.
q Economic reasons, mainly for USSR.
q Third Wold had emptied as an arena
for the Cold War. No more places to fight?